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The US dollars sharply lower against all major currencies
The USD is moving to new session lows against all the major currencies.
The dollars declines are the greatest versus the CHF and the GBP (see chart above). The USDCHF is now down close to -1.55%. The greenback is lower by -1.52% against the GBP.
The USDCHF tumble is the largest one-day decline since November 11, 2022 when the pair fell -2.29%.
The GBPUSDs move is its largest rise (lower USD) since December 1, 2022 when it gained 1.648%
USDCHF:
USDCHF tumbles lower
The USDCHF s tumble lower today saw the price move below a swing area between 0.9278 and 0.9290, and then below other swing areas between 0.9259 and 0.9262, and 0.92139 and 0.92191 (see yellow areas in the chart above). The low price reached 0.91768 so far.
The next target comes between 0.9157 and 0.91651 (see red numbered circles in the chart above). The low price from February 13 is down at 0.91357 and would represent another target on further selling.
What would hurt the bearish bias for the USDCHF?
A move back above 0.92139 and 0.92191 would be a chink in the short term intraday bias. Additionally a move back above the 38.2% – 50% retracement of the trend move down from the high at 0.93159 would be indicative of a weaker trend bias. That area comes between 0.9229 and 0.9246. Typically, a trend like move like seen in the USDCHF, can see corrective moves into the 38.2 -50% level and still keep a trend bias. As a result, traders will look toward that corrective zone for selling opportunities in the short term.
On Wednesday, the price of the USDCHF was testing the swing highs going back to December 2022.. Since then the price has moved down some 260 pips.
GBPUSD:
GBPUSD runs to the upside
The GBPUSDs initial move to the upside today found willing sellers against the Topside downward sloping trendline. The subsequent move to the downside however, found support buyers against its 100 day moving average at 1.2009 (blue line step line in the chart above). That moving average held resistance earlier in the European session as well.
The inability to move back below the 100 day moving average, gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher.
Once the price was able to get above the trend line and above the 1.20497 level (see red numbered circles), the buying intensified and the price moved up to a high of 1.2110.
Currently the price is trading right around the 61.8% retracement, and the swing high from March 1 near 1.2091. A move below that level would have traders looking toward the swing high from earlier this week at 1.20646 and then another swing area near 1.2050 (see red numbered circles).
If the buyers are to remain in control, staying up above those levels (with the 1.20916 being the most bullish) are the best case scenarios for buyers in the short-term.
A move back below 1.2050 with momentum would be disappointing for the buyers in the short term and have traders scratching their heads a bit.