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Above 38.2% retracement
Trading is underway and the initial move was a few pips lower. However, the swing from Wednesday’s trade at 1.1394 and 38.2% of the move down from Jan 10 high (high for the year) stalled the fall and the price has moved back above 1.1400 and to an early day high at 1.14084.
On Friday, the EURUSD rallied strongly, breaking above its 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue line at 1.13588, and green line at 1.13736 currently). The move above the 200 hour MA was the first breach since January 15th. That led to a bigger squeez to the upside. The bias turned more to the upside on the breaks.
The pair did move above teh swing high from January 18 at 1.14104, but could not get to the 50% retracement at 1.1429. Another key target above on a more bullish run this week, would look toward the 100 day MA at 1.14486. The price moved below the 100 day MA back and January 15th and has not been back since that move (and move below the 200 hour MA on the same day- that really changed the techncal picture).
Getting above the 100 and 200 hour MAs was more bullish. The 38.2% is a close risk/bias level to eye in early trading today as traders get into the trading rhythm this week. However, if the bias is to get even more bearish moves above the 50% at 1.1429 and the 100 day MA at 1.14486 will be eyed.