Month: January 2019

According to CME Group’s FedWatch program, the post-FOMC jump in the US interest rates futures implied that there could be nearly one-in-three chance the Fed would lower key lending rates by a 25 bps in the next 12 months vs. a one-in-five shot the previous day. The rally in rates futures came a day after

Australian Dollar Talking Points AUD/USD climbs to fresh monthly highs as the Federal Reserve’s drops the hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy, and recent price action raises the risk for a larger flash-crash rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the bearish formation from late-2018. AUD/USD Flash-Crash Rebound Eyes December-High Ahead of RBA

Chicago PMI data Lower than the worst estimate Lowest since Jan 2017 Prior was 65.4 (revised to 63.8) Employment rises at faster pace Production rises at slower pace Inventories rose at a slower pace This is a big miss. Manufacturing numbers have been all over the place lately. This was one of the last ones

GBP/USD daily chart GBP/USD is trading just above its 200-day simple moving average. GBP/USD 4-hour chart GBP/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting a bullish momentum in the medium-term.  GBP/USD 30-minute chart GBP/USD is trading sideways. Bulls are looking for a break of the 1.3160 resistance while bears need a break below the 1.3100 support. 

TALKING POINTS – EURO, GDP, US-CHINA TRADE TALKS, YEN, AUSSIE DOLLAR Euro may fall as soft 4Q GDP data weighs on ECB rate hike bets Global slowdown worries may cool post-FOMC market optimism US-China trade talks may be formative for risk sentiment trends Fourth-quarter Eurozone GDP data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours.

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The extension of dovish FOMC led US dollar weakness emerged the main underlying theme in Asia this Thursday, keeping the sentiment buoyed around most majors. The Antipodeans benefited the most, as the risk-on wave gripped the Asian markets amid dovish Fed, US-China trade deal hopes and upbeat Chinese official manufacturing and service PMI reports. The

UBS – ‘More Brexit pain is needed before markets can price a true bull case for UK assets’ Coming Up! Title text for next article Responses to the Brexit voting Tuesday continue UBS with a dour outlook: UK politics will have to get worse before it gets better Either the House of Commons will need

Gold Talking Points Gold has finally cleared the range-bound price action from December, with the price for bullion climbing to a fresh yearly-high ($1316) following the Federal Reserve meeting, and the precious metal may continue to catch a bid as it carves a series of higher highs & lows. Gold Extends Bullish Series as FOMC

“No change from the Federal Reserve as they emphasise they are in no hurry to raise interest rates. But if the data warrants it, and we think it will, they are prepared to tighten policy further later in the year,” argue ING analysts. Key quotes “The Federal Reserve has unanimously voted in favour of leaving

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The pair paid little attention to US, German data. The greenback stays flat ahead of FOMC. US ADP report surprised to the upside in January. The mood around the single currency exchanges ups and downs so far today, with EUR/USD navigating a tight range around the 1.1430 region. EUR/USD now looks to Fed Spot remains

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS: Crude oil prices rise amid talk of further US sanctions on Venezuela Gold prices shrug off US Dollar gains to rise as Treasury yields drop US-China trade talks may overshadow FOMC rate decision, US GDP A lull in top-tier relevant event risk and a deluge of incoming developments translated

Latest data released by Destatis – 30 January 2019 Prior -1.0% Import price index +1.6% vs +2.1% y/y expected Prior +3.1% ForexLive Slight delay in the release by the source. A further slump in import prices, mainly reflects the CPI figures we got last month already. The release here is a lagging indicator of inflationary

According to analysts at TD Securities, German CPI is going to be the key economic release for Eurozone today. Key Quotes “Q4 French GDP is released and is expected by the market to rise 0.2%. German Gfk consumer confidence for February is expected to be little changed at 10.3 vs 10.4.” “Starting at 8:00 GMT,