Technical Analysis

EURUSD on the 4-hour chart The EURUSD pair experienced a decline in today’s trading session, with its high price for the week coming in just short of last week’s peak. This event coincides with notable swing areas dating back to late January. The recent high prices were observed on the 4-hour chart, with today’s highest

GBPUSD moved to new highs heading into the close The GBPUSD moved to new highs heading toward the close. The price has reached 1.23919. That is the highest level since 2023. Looking at the hourly chart, the price is also moving away from a swing area between 1.2343 to 1.2360. That area is now risk

USDCAD tests 100 day MA The USDCAD is approaching the 100 day MA at 1.35142. The low price just reached 1.3519. The 100 day MA closed below the 100 day MA last on February 20. Often traders will lean against the 100 day MA on the first test (after a while). The low prices today

The USD the weakest The CHF is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The major currencies are relatively scrunched together to start the trading day. The USDCHF has been trending to the downside after breaking below the 100 hour MA at 0.9181. It is the biggest mover with

On the daily chart below, we can see that after the big and fast rally caused by the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and the fall in real yields, gold has entered a consolidation near the previous top. We can also notice that the price is diverging with the MACD, which is generally a signal of

On the daily chart below, we can see that the USDCHF sellers leaned on the red long period moving average as the price pulled back due to the Credit Suisse crisis. As things calmed down and the bank was acquired by UBS, the CHF strengthened again as the US Dollar remained weak due to the

On the daily chart below, we can see that the USDJPY has recently bounced from the 130.00 handle and it’s now eyeing the red long period moving average. The big fall was caused by the Silicon Valley Bank collapse that triggered a huge fall in Treasury yields as the market started to reprice lower future

On the daily chart below for AUDUSD, we can see that after breaking above the downward trendline, the buyers started to have the upper hand and even managed to breach the 0.67 resistance. The moving averages are on the verge of crossing upwards, which would be a bad omen for the sellers. We can see

On the daily chart below for USDCAD, we can see that after reaching the top at 1.3862, the market fell as the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank and the fears around the banking sector made the market to reprice lower future interest rates expectations dragging the US Dollar down with it. The market then

On the daily chart below for EURUSD, we can see that the price managed to break above the 1.08 handle as the Fed delivered on expectations although it sounded less hawkish. The reason is that the Fed is fearing that the recent events in the banking sector may slow the economy without requiring the Fed

The major US stock indices are closing mixed on the day. The Dow and the S&P are closing higher. The Nasdaq fell. Higher interest rates took some of the wind out of some of the high tech mega cap stocks which become a “safe haven” through the banking crisis. Energy, financials and industrials led the

EURJPY moves above 200 day MA and 100 hour MA The EURJPY move higher in the Asian and early European session. The 200 hour MA initially held resistance (currently at 141.43). Later, the price moved above that MA and also the 200 day MA and 100 hour MA. Those levels come in at 141.839 and

The last week was full of so many events and releases that it is hard to figure where to start. So as Julie Andrews sang in the Sound of Music, you start at the very beginning. In this video, I talk to the week that was that had the Fed, and the market seemingly at

Bitcoin has gone up 86% since November 2022. Why would traders take (at least partial) profit? Traders who have been profitable over a protracted rise, such as early Bitcoin buyers before an extended rally, may choose to sell or exit at least part of their position at a price deemed a “junction” in terms of

The S&P 500 has been trading in a range for the previous 30 days, with the volume profile indicating that buyers were keen to enter at the value area low on Friday. This is a recurring trend, since bulls have previously stepped in when the price reached the value area low, which is approximately at

WTI crude oil is higher on the week The price of WTI crude oil futures is settling at $69.26. That’s down $0.70 or -1.0%.. The low-price reached $66.82. The high price extended to $70.38. For the trading week, the price is up $3.47 or 2.32% from the close last Friday. Looking at the hourly chart

AUDUSD falls a new low today The AUDUSD has exhibited a series of ups and downs since last Friday, with the “ups” encountering resistance between 0.67239 and 0.67296 for the majority of the week. Buyers attempted to push the price up on Wednesday and Thursday, driven by volatility from the Fed rate decision. These upward

USDCAD breaks out of the up and down range today The USDCAD experienced considerable volatility during the first four days of the trading week, with the price action reflecting significant fluctuations. The red box in the chart above highlights this week’s trading range, characterized by sharp ups and downs over the first 4 1/2 days.

GBPUSD bounces off a key support target The GBPUSD experienced a decline today, breaking below the 100-hour moving average (MA) at 1.22608 for the first time since March 17th. The pair’s downward trajectory brought it to a significant swing area between 1.2191 and 1.22028, with the rising 200-hour MA currently situated at 1.21952 – within

EURUSD fell below the 50% /200H MA but failed The EURUSD fell sharply today. I outlined the move using the 4-hour chart in the morning video. If you dialed down to the hourly chart above, the pair was also moving to and through a couple of key technical levels at the lows today on that

USDCHF falls from 100 hour MA/38. Retracement2% The USDCHF moved higher with the flight into the relative safety of the USD today, and in the process moved up to test the broken 38.2% retracement of the March trading range at 0.92117, along with the following 100 hour moving average currently just above that level of

On the daily chart below, we can see that after breaking above the downward trendline that was keeping the downtrend intact, the price rallied erasing almost all of the February decline. The price is now struggling to extend above the 1.2264 resistance as the uncertainty is high in the markets regarding the future outlook. The

EURUSD falls below 1.0866 The EURUSD moved to new session lows. The move to the downside picked up steam on the break below the swing area between 1.0866 to 1.0886. The price has moved to a low of 1.0823 and looks toward the 1.0800 area (1.0799 to 1.0805) as the next target (blue numbered circles).

USDJPY stays below the 100 hour MA The USDJPY found support buyers in the Asian session as it reached a low swing area (see green numbered circles) between 130.345 and 130.60, resulting in a reversal to the upside at the start of the North American session (refer to the earlier video HERE). The price then

On the daily chart below, we can see that the price got rejected from a key resistance level set in June 2021. Bitcoin had a parabolic rally since the peak of the banking “crisis” and we may now see a pullback with the most likely support at the 25231 level where we can also find

The two year yield is down to 4.041% that’s down -13.5 basis points and down from 4.13% before the Fed decision. That is driving the USD down as a first reaction. The Fed kept the target terminal rate at 5.1% the same as December. They do not see the PCE inflation moving below 2% target

AUDUSD sits between the 100/200 are moving averages The AUDUSD is trading between its 100 hour moving average (blue line) above, and 200 hour moving average (green line) below ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Those moving averages will help define the more bullish or more bearish bias. There are a number of swing levels

On the daily chart below, we can see that the sellers couldn’t keep the momentum going breaking out of the 0.6191 support. As the fears caused by the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank and a possible banking crisis reached their peak, the buyers stepped in as emergency actions taken by the Fed and the

WTI crude oil futures is settling at $69.33, up $1.69 or 2.55% on the day, marking the largest daily increase since February 7, 2023. Today’s high reached $69.77, while the low extended to $66.90. Examining the daily chart, the next upside target is the swing low from December 2022, which stands at $70.08. Upon breaking

USDCAD runs to the 200 hour MA The USDCAD initially saw an increase after weaker-than-expected CPI data this morning (see post here), causing the CAD to weaken (higher USDCAD). However, the momentum quickly faded, and the price dropped below a critical floor near the 50% midpoint at 1.36511 (see green number circles). Despite briefly reaching