Technical Analysis

S&P index moves down toward support including 100H MA The major US stock indices remain in the red and are moving back toward the lows for the day. For the S&P index, its low price today came in at 4343.64. Its current price is at 4346.30 down -35.24 points on the day or -0.80%. The

The EURUSD corrected higher off a swing area between 1.0842 and 1.08485. The corrected move higher in the early New York session moved back into the lower swing area of a “Red Box” that confined the pair in April and May (between 1.08955 to 1.1095), and which was broken last week. The price moved back

The AUDUSD started to show cracks in its bullish bias last Friday, and that crack led to a bigger and bigger move as technical levels were taken out one by one. First, it was the 100-hour moving average (higher blue line) and channel trendline. That led to a break of the 200-hour moving average. The

Here we go again. The USDCAD has been trending more to the downside. This week a new low was made going back to September 2022. On the move to the downside, there have been corrective moves higher which have seen the price of the pair move above its 100-hour moving average (blue line in the

Despite a 50 basis point hike by the Bank of England this week, the GBPUSD is trading lower in the week. Concerns of slower growth despite high inflation is weighing on the currency pair today. Technically, the price of the GBPUSD has dipped back below its 200-hour moving average at 1.27312. Stay below the moving

EURUSD outside of the Red Box again The EURUSD cracked lower today with selling pressure starting in the Asian session and continuing in the Europe morning session. PMI flash data for June was mostly weaker than expected. Yields are lower as well weakening the currency. Concerns about growth are driving as central banks are forced

The NZDUSD has seen a number of ups and down in recent trading. That pattern continued in trading today with up-and-down price volatility. The most recent “run” has been to the downside (see hourly chart below), and that move has taken the price back below the 100/200 hour MAs. The 100-hour MA is at 0.61924.

USD/JPY touched 143.00 for the first time since November as the market frets about rate hikes. The thinking throughout market is increasingly that central banks are headed for higher terminal rates and at risk of overdoing it. The confirmation for the breakout in USD/JPY will come from Treasuries and a new high above 4.80% in

The EURUSD moved above the 1.1000 level and the swing high from early May (May 10 to be exact) at 1.1006. The high price it today reached 1.1011 before rotating back to the downside. Initial jobs claims remained elevated at 264K. The inability to stay above the 1.1000 level, may also be contributing to the

The USD was mixed at the start of the trading day. Below are was the dollar changes vs the major currencies near the start of the US session. The USD at the start of the US trading day Looking at the snapshot of the strongest to the weakest now shows the USD is lower against

The NZDUSD has seen up-and-down price action today, with the last push to the upside. That move was helped by support holding against the 200-day moving average of 0.6153. There were three separate tests of that moving average in trading today, and each dip found willing buyers against the moving average level. In the last

The strongest to weakest of the major currencies The CAD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The GBP is also weaker despite higher CPI data. PPI in the UK was lower. The GBP initially moved higher on the news but then reversed lower as traders focused

NZDUSD looks back to the 200 hour MA The NZDUSD stepped lower and is trading down for the 3rd consecutive day after a run above the 100-day moving average last week failed. (100-day moving averages at 0.62129). In trading today, the Asian session saw the price test its 100-hour moving average (currently at 0.62046). Sellers

The USDJPY has been stepping lower today after trading at the highest level since November 2022. That high price at 142.247 bested the November 21 high at 142.246 by the slimmest of margins, but quickly turned around (see daily chart). USDJPY stalled at the high from November 2022 The subsequent move to the downside has

The Fed last week paused its tightening cycle leaving interest rates at 5.00-5.25%. The FOMC wants to see more economic data before deciding on another rate hike as they are trying to fine tune their policy to get to a sufficiently restrictive level to bring inflation down without too much economic pain. The BoC, on

As we turn the page into a new trading week for the GBPUSD, what are key levels in play and why? This week, the price of the GBPUSD moved above the 61.8% of the move down from the 2021 high to the 2022 low. That level comes in at 1.2760 and is now close support

The EURUSD made it’s week’s low on Monday, and reached the pairs high to day. The move higher has taken the price back into a consolidation area going back to May. The low of that consolidation range will be the key barometer for buyers and sellers going into the new trading week. The video above,

The price of crude oil is settling at $71.78. That is up $1.16 or 1.64%. The high reached $72.01. The low price was at $70.18. For the trading week, the price is up $1.76 or 2.52%. The low price for the week was reached on Monday at $66.82. The high price was today’s high at

The major JPY crosses all had huge weeks to the upside this week. Today, the BOJ kept rates and their yield curve control steady. They expect inflation to move lower. Ueda acknowledge the lower JPY but said there are goods and bads in currency moves. The USDJPY is higher by 1.74%, but it is the

As the clock ticks to the weekend, what are key levels in play and why now and heading into to the new trading week for the GBPUSD? This week, the price of the GBPUSD moved above the 61.8% of the move down from the 2021 high to the 2022 low. That level comes in at

In the USDCAD, the sellers have pushed the price below a swing area between 1.3207 and 1.32299. The low price just reached 1.31942. Staying below 1.32299 now would keep the sellers in firm control. The high price today reach 1.32398. A move above that level would target the swing low going back to Wednesday’s trade

AUDUSD shows a crack The AUDUSD has been up 10 of the last 11 trading days. The move from the low reached 0.6457 on May 31, and reached a high of 0.6899 today. That is a move of 442 pips. Technically looking at the daily chart, the price today moved above the 61.8% retracement of

In the old days stock traders is to “read the tape”. They literally read the tickertape of the trades that were going through live and being recorded. In other words they were looking at the actual price action and making judgments as far as supply and demand from traders. Modern traders can look at a

This week, the Federal Reserve took a slightly more hawkish stance than expected. They decided to keep interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.00-5.25%, but they increased the projected terminal rate in the Dot Plot by 50 basis points. The FOMC chose to pause during this meeting to gather more economic data before making

The USDCAD is down-testing a key support target between 1.3207 and 1.32299. Looking at the daily chart below, that level was a ceiling in July and September 2022, then became a floor since breaking above also in September 2022. The level was retested in November 2022 and the swing low earlier this year in January

EURUSD tests the topside swing area. The EURUSD has extended to yet another new high end and the process is testing the next target swing area between 1.0933 and 1.0942. I outlined this level in the earlier post/video (see video here). The area was a solid floor gone back in time before breaking on May

There is a little bit of this and a little bit of that in the Fed Chair comments and in the markets: In the forex, the major indices saw the dollar spike higher and then retrace. The US yields moved higher and came back off. The US stocks fell and recovered. EURUSD: The EURUSD moved

The Federal Reserve exerted a hawkish pause by skipping a rate hike but raising the terminal rate to 5.6% from 5.1%. That implies 50 more basis points hikes between now and the end of the year. The market which was thinking in terms of no change and the potential for no change in July, is

EURUSD buyers are more in control. So what levels are in play through the FOMC rate decision? The EURUSD extended up to – and then through – the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 1.08334 (see green line on the chart above). The price has moved to a high of 1.08637.

Crude oil is higher in the day but below 38.2% retracement The price of crude oil did rally sharply today with the price settling at $69.42 up $2.30 or 3.43%.The high price extended to $69.83. The low was at $67.15. Looking at the hourly chart above, the run to the upside today stalled just short