Technical Analysis

The BoE surprised at the last meeting delivering a 50 bps rate hike instead of the 25 bps expected. This move was justified by the higher-than-expected inflation figures the previous day and the really hot employment report prior to that. BoE’s Governor Bailey has also reiterated recently at the ECB forum that they will do

The market expects the Fed to hike by 25 bps at the July meeting given that the economic data kept on surprising to the upside since the last FOMC meeting, although a lot will depend on the next NFP and CPI reports. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that they expect two or more rate hikes if

Since the last FOMC meeting the US economic data surprised consistently to the upside leading to a more hawkish pricing for interest rates expectations. In fact, Fed Chair Powell said that the majority of the FOMC expects two or more rate hikes coming if the economy performs as expected. Conversely, the UK employment and inflation

GBPUSD The GBPUSD is trading above and below the 100 and 200-hour MAs with the 100-hour MA at 1.26705 and the 200-hour MA at 1.27015. The sellers below the 100-hour MA took their shot. The buyers above the 200-hour MA took their shot. Both missed. THe price is currently trading between the two MAs now

Traders in the AUDUSD are using moving averages on the top and bottom sides to define the boundaries today. Looking at the chart below, the AUDUSD moved higher after the weaker US ISM manufacturing data, but ran into a cluster of moving averages including: 200-hour moving average of 0.66814 200-day moving average of 0.66912 100-day

It is a holiday in Canada and a semi-holiday in the US (although all markets are open) as the 4th of July holiday is looming tomorrow. So activity nevertheless is likely to slow. Nevertheless, the USDJPY is testing some key support defined by the rising 100-hour moving average. That level currently comes in at 144.383.

USDJPY tests 100 hour MA. Short term barometer. The USDJPY moved lower today, coming off the boil a bit (see videos here and here).The drift lower started against a channel trend line against swing highs from this week (green numbered circles). The lows have inched below the lower channel trend line but stalled ahead of

S&P index trades to new 2023 highs As a market heads into the close for the week, month, and quarter, the S&P today is extending to new highs for the year. The price extended above the June 16 high at 4448.47 to an intraday high of 4456.72. The current price trades at 4452.22. Technically, this

NZDUSD above the 100 hour MA and tests 200 hour MA The NZDUSD has not escaped the USD selling today. The pair is up 1.15% on the day (NZD higher/USD lower). At current levels, it’s the largest increase since April 13 when the pair rose by 1.386%. Looking at the hourly chart, the move to

The EURUSD ran through resistance up to 1.0896 when I looked at the EURUSD earlier. That gave buyers more control and they took the price up to the 100 and 200-hour MAs. The price of the EURUSD moved above the 200-hour moving average but could not sustain momentum. The price had rotated modestly to the

The USDCAD moved up to test a swing area between 1.3271 and 1.3285 on Wednesday, and again yesterday on 2 separate tests. The high price yesterday stalled right against the high of that swing area at 1.3285. It couldn’t get through and make a run at the 38.2% retracement above at 1.33222. In trading today,

The AUDUSD has moved above the 100-hour moving average of 0.66485. That is the first trade above that moving average since falling below on June 20. The price has also moved above a broken swing area between 0.6637 and 0.6652. The area is now close support for buyers looking for more upside. Move back below

The GBPUSD has snapped back to the upside after tamer core PCE data. The move to the upside comes after the pair tested a swing area going back to June 12 – 14 (see green number circles) and the swing low from Wednesday’s trade at 1.2599. Recall yesterday, the price also tested that level then

The USDJPY moved to a new 2023 high (and high going back to November 2022) reaching just above a key swing area on the daily chart (see video above for outline of that level) at 144.98 and the natural resistance at 145.00. However, the high price could only reach 145.066 before rotating to the downside.

The EURUSD moved higher in the early US trading and in the process as it reentered into the “Red Box” (see chart below), that was the value area until breaking lower yesterday (between 1.0886 and 1.0973). The price is currently testing the low swing area within that Red Box between 1.0886 and 1.0896. Recall from

I know…. the USDJPY is overbought. The RSI is above the 70 level indicative of an overbought condition in the USDJPY. The RSI in the USDJPY has not been this high since October 2022. The problem is the USDJPY has been overbought over the last 6-7 days. During that time, the price has moved up

In an earlier video, I spoke about the corrective move higher and how the sellers had to hold the 1.0896 level. Risk was defined against the level. Sellers could lean with limited exposure. If done, the price has since wandered lower and now tests the next target at the 38.2%. The sellers are still in

Trending markets can get overbought and stay overbought. That is the case with the USDJPY. It has been up 6 of the last 7 days (and up strongly in June), and the RSI on the daily is overbought (see video). However, trending markets can get overbought and overbought and more overbought. The overbought oscillators can

AUDUSD breaks lower. What next? The AUDUSD market shifted further into seller control today following the closes below the 200-day Moving Average (MA) on Monday and Tuesday, at 0.66905. Yesterday, the pair closed slightly beneath the MA at 0.6686, while Monday’s closing price was 0.6674. Today’s high reached 0.66887 ahead of monthly Australia’s Consumer Price

EURUSD retests the 100 hour MA In the video, from earlier today, I outlined the “value area” where most of the trading activity has occurred over the last 9-10 days. That range is from about 1.0890 up to 1.0973 (give or take a few pips). In between sits the near-converged 100 and 200-hour moving averages.

The USDCAD has been trending lower since peaking at the end of May near 1.36539. Just yesterday the low price extended to 1.3117. That was the lowest level since September 2022. The move to the downside has seen corrective price action where the price has been able to extend above the 100-hour moving average. However,

The price of WTI crude oil futures is settling at $67.70 today. That is down $-1.67 or -2.41%. The low price reached $67.55. The high price was at $70.15. Current economic projections lean toward the potential for recessions in the US (and other global economies) and that has traders worried about the demand-side. That view

The NZDUSD has been trading up and down and up and down today. The most recent move is to the downside, but support buyers came in against its 200-day moving average near 0.61574. The move off of that US session low has been able to find resistance against its 100-hour moving average at 0.61716 which

The GBPUSD buyers are trying to make a play, but continues to have trouble at the 200 hour MA. The last three days, has seen little moves above that MA, but no momentum. IN the early US session, the price is once again pushing against that MA (it tried earlier today), but found sellers on

USDCHF approaches 100/200 hour moving averages The USDCHF is moving to new US session highs (still down on the day), and in the process is moving closer to its falling 100 and 200 hour moving average is near 0.89585. The price is currently trading at 0.8955. Earlier today, the price tested the higher 200-hour moving

AUDUSD trades above and below the 50% If the price action in the AUDUSD was a heartbeat today, it would be in a hibernation state. The up and down range is only 27 pips. That is well short of the 70 pip average over the last 22-days (about a month of trading). Looking at the

The EURUSD had a lid on the upside in the Asian/early European session against its 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below), and then was pressured lower in the European session helped by weaker German IFO data. However, the fall has seen a rebound in the early US session, the price moved back

Market trends of Russell 2000 The Russell 2000 futures experienced a downturn, closing lower on June 23, 2023, following a week characterized by increase, but still, fairly low volatility , as the ViX is still quite low. The index, which maintained its position within a certain range since May 31st, broke down below the lower

The USDJPY has moved higher (lower JPY) despite higher inflation data out of Japan today. USDJPY on daily chart breaks higher The move higher this week was kickstarted yesterday after the pair broke above a swing area between 142.24 and 142.49. The price also moved above the 61.8% retracement level of the move down from

German Dax approaches 100 day MA and swing area The German Dax trended lower this week after reaching an all-time high last week at 16427.42. The move lower this week reached a low (today) at 15733.12. That low is getting closer to the rising 100 day MA at 15665.44. The low was still 68 points