Technical Analysis

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies The NZD is the strongest currency and the GBP is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed/mostly higher with gains vs the EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF and AUD and declines vs the CAD and NZD. The USDJPY after waffling up and

USDJPY moves above 151.00 In an earlier post, I spoke to the sellers near the 151.00 level. That level corresponded with the price just prior to the FOMC rate decision last Wednesday. The price trended down reaching a low on Friday at 149.180. The inability to get above the 151.00 level opened the door for

The price of WTI crude futures are selling sharply lower. The price closed at $75.33. That is down $2.04 or -2.64%. Since Friday’s high at $83.56, the price has fallen -10.29%. Crude oil is below its 200 day moving average Technically, the price fell and closed below its 200-day moving average yesterday at $78.13. Today

The day started with the Dow industrial average and S&P index lower on the day. At session lows, the S&P was down -10.58 points and the Dow industrial average always down -69.15 point). That lower open threatened the 7-day consecutive up day streak. However, at the close, the losses have been reversed and each of

The NZDUSD moved lower on Monday and continued that trend today. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price moved down to test its 200 bar moving average (green line in the chart below) along with the 50% midpoint of the range for October (and the range going back to August). That midpoint comes in at

Crude oil is breaking to a new session low. The price just traded to $77.53. That’s down $3.29 on the day. In the process, the prices were falling below its 200-day moving average near $78.14 (see green line in the chart below). The price is trading at the lowest level since July 24. Crude oil

US The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected with basically no change to the statement. Fed Chair Powell stressed once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy tightening have yet to be felt. The recent US Core PCE came in line with expectations. The labour market is starting to

The USD is higher vs all major currencies except the CHF The USD is making new highs versus a number of the major currencies including the: The USD is near highs versus the CAD, AUD and NZD. The greenback is only lower versus the CHF (by -0.02%). Although the dollar is higher don’t get too

The USDJPY is testing the 150.00 level The USDJPY is trading at 149.97 and in the process is pushing the natural resistance at 150.00. A move above and traders will be looking toward the 150.154 level which was the high going back to early October. It is also just below the 200-hour MA at 150.18.

US The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected with basically no change to the statement. Fed Chair Powell stressed once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy tightening have yet to be felt. The US Core PCE last week came in line with expectations. The labour market remains pretty

As the forex market sleepwalks as traders await the US jobs report at 8:30 AM ET, the USDCHF is hanging around its neutral area defined by the 100-hour moving average of 0.90538 and 50% midpoint of the October trading range at 0.90658. That area will be the barometer for buyers and sellers through the jobs

The USDCAD is moving higher as sellers over the last few days cover some short against a support target defined by the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October low to the October high. That midpoint comes in at 1.3733. Also near the midpoint is a swing area between 1.3735 and 1.3743. The

Yesteday, the NZD, CAD and AUD were the strongest of the major currencies as “risk on” flows dominated with the giddy stock markets. The USD and the CHF were the weakest as the flow of funds exited the “safe-havens”. Today, so far, the price action is very limited. Looking at the changes of the major

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US UK The BoE kept interest rates unchanged as expected today. The central bank is leaning towards keeping interest rates “higher for longer”, although it keeps a door open for further tightening if inflationary pressures were to be more persistent. BoE Governor Bailey repeated that they will keep rates high for long enough to get

USDJPY fell to the 200 hour MA & finally found some support The USDJPY fell sharply but after breaking below its 100-hour moving average at 150.283 and the 50% midpoint of the move up from Monday’s low at 150.252, the buyers showed up near the 200-hour moving average at 150.129. The low price reached 150.14.

The AUDUSD is trading at session highs and trading up 0.70% on the day. The gain is only behind the NZDUSD which has moved up 0.80% so far today. The rise is being helped by a divergence of rates. The FOMC yesterday kept rates unchanged with what was perceived as a more dovish tilt. Meanwhile,

Like many pairs today, the NZDUSD has seen up-and-down price action. For it, the pair fell in the Asian session, helped by weaker China data. The fall in the Asian session stalled just ahead of the 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart below). The run higher reached up to 0.5856, before tumbling in the

The USD is now the strongest of the major currences The USD continues its run to the upside in the US session and is now the strongest of the major currencies. At the start of the New York session, the greenback was near the middle of the “strongest to the weakest” table with the rise

The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday, and in the process tested a downward-sloping trendline on the hourly chart connecting the high from October 11 and the high from October 25 (see red numbered circle 3 on the chart below). The price high also got close to the 50% midpoint of the October trading range near 0.6385.

The USDCHF takes its clues from support holding at the 200-day MA. The price of the USDCHF, has surged to the upside away from that MA level over the last few hours as dollar buyers took more control in the forex market. That move took to the price above the 50% midpoint of the October

USDCAD Fundamental Analysis US The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting. The macroeconomic projections were revised higher, and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024. Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency

Last week, the risk sentiment started on a positive note at the beginning of the week due to the lack of a ground offensive in Gaza. Unfortunately, things went south from Wednesday onwards as Israeli PM Netanyahu delivered a speech where he said that they were preparing for a ground invasion. Moreover, the US Jobless

Last week, the risk sentiment started on a positive note at the beginning of the week due to the lack of a ground offensive in Gaza. Unfortunately, things went south from Wednesday onwards as Israeli PM Netanyahu delivered a speech where he said that they were preparing for a ground invasion. Moreover, the US Jobless

Last week, the risk sentiment started on a positive note at the beginning of the week due to the lack of a ground offensive in Gaza. Unfortunately, things went south from Wednesday onwards as Israeli PM Netanyahu delivered a speech where he said that they were preparing for a ground invasion. Moreover, the US Jobless

The GBPUSD is trading up and down today, but the move to the upside today stalled near the 100/200 hour MAs near 1.2154 area. Recall, that area stalled the rally on Wednesday as well. The subsequent fall, in the US afternoon session, has taken the price back toward the swing area near 1.2105 and 1.21109.

The WTI crude oil settles above the August high of $84.85 The price of WTI crude futures is settling at $85.54, up $2.33 or 2.80%. That is above the August high of $84.85 tilting a bias more to the upside. Looking at the daily chart, the low prices this week stalled the fall near the

The EURUSD buyers tried to tilt the technical bias to the upside today with a move above its 200-hour moving average at 1.0580 and it’s 100-hour moving average 1.0589. The price also moved above the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 13 low at 1.0594. However, momentum above the levels could not

Weekly Russell 2000 If you needed another reminder that it’s been just tech — and mostly seven stocks — that have been carrying US equity markets, then here it is. The Russell 2000 just broke through the June 2022 low and is trading at the lowest levels since November 2020. If you go back further,

The NASDAQ index is up 127 points or 1.0% at 12721.65, but this week saw a sharp move lower that took the price below its 200 day moving average for the 1st time since March 2023. The price also fell below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2022 low to the 2023