Technical Analysis

In this video, I take a technical look at all the major currency pairs including the: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD) and discuss the bias, control, risk and targets as we head into the close of trading on November 20, and look toward the new trading day on November 21.

In my last technical post on the GBPJPY last week, I spoke about the importance of the 100-hour moving average. That moving average has been a point of support (and resistance) going back in time as a market trended to the upside. Don Friday, the price fell below that 100-hour moving average and then used

As the week comes to an end, the USDJPY fell sharply and in the process tested the low from early November at 149.175. The low reached 149.192 before bouncing. The price is trading at 149.74. The double bottom mirrors the double top from the high this week (on Monday). That high was reached on Monday

Today, the AUDUSD has moved up from a swing area support between 0.6445 and a 0.6455 (see red numbered circles on the chart below). The subsequent move to the upside took the price back above its 100-day moving average of 0.64874 (blue overlay line on the chart below). That moving average is – and remains

USDCAD The USDCAD is lower on the day, and in the process, fell below the 100-hour moving average in the early European session (blue line in the chart above currently at 1.37356). The subsequent fall to 1.3707 (reached in the morning North American session) so the price fall below the swing high from Wednesday and

USDCHF remains below the 0.8900 level. Sellers in control. The tumble lower in the USDCHF took the price below its 100-day moving average at 0.8896 (blue overlayed step line on the chart above), 50% retracement at 0.88999, and Swing level near the 0.89000 level (see red circles on the chart above). Since then, the price

The GBPUSD is trading below the 200H MA/38.2% retracement Like the EURUSD (see post here), the GBPUSD moved sharply higher on Tuesday helped by the weaker CPI data. That took the pair above its 200-day moving average currently at 1.2443, and 38.2% of the move down from the July high at 1.2458. The high price

EURUSD trades above and below the 50% midpoint The EURUSD has continued to move up and down as the trading week comes to an end. Recall from Tuesday, the parable sharply higher after the lower-than-expected CPI data. That took the price up to a high of 1.0867. On Thursday, the price extended above that level

USD The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected with basically no change to the statement. Fed Chair Powell stressed once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy tightening have yet to be felt. The recent US CPI missed expectations across the board bringing the expectations for rate cuts forward.

GBPJPY has tested the 100 hour MA two times today The GBPJPY is down for the 2nd consecutive day after peaking on Tuesday at the highest level since November 2015. The move down today reached 186.81, and at the time, they price tested its 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). A few

EURUSD is moving back away from 50% midpoint.Close Risk now. The EURUSD is extending to a new high for the day and a new high for the week surpassing the swing highs from Tuesday and Wednesday near 1.0887. The high price just reached 1.08944. The push to the upside has gotten technical fuel from the

The GBPUSD is back below its 200 day moving average The GBPUSD ran higher yesterday, and in the process extended toward its 100-day moving average near 1.2512. The high price got within 7 pips of that level at 1.2505 before rotating back to the downside. In trading today, lower-than-expected CPI data out of the UK

The price of crude oil is settling at $76.66, down -$1.60 or -2.04%. The high for the day reached $78.77. The low reached $76.45. Looking at the hourly chart below, the run higher yesterday moved higher and above the 200-hour MA and a downward sloping trend line. That break, however, was short-lived, and the subsequent

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CPI data for the month of October came in tamer than expectations with the headline number rising by 0.0% month on month (versus expectations of 0.1%). The core measure rose by 0.2% (versus expectations of 0.3%). Although the year-on-year levels are still above the 2% targets at 3.2% and 4.0% respectively they are well off

The USD is continuing its tumble lower with the EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD and NZD all down -1.50% or more now. Versus the JPY the USD is down -1.01%. The biggest mover is the NZDUSD which is now up 2.35%. Looking at the daily chart of the NZDUSD, it has now reached and breached its

The major stock indices are opening with solid gains led by the NASDAQ index. US CPI came in tamer than expectations at 0.0% for the headline number and 0.2% for the core measure. Expectations for a Fed tightening have been taken out of the market in December. Feds Barkan has said that the Fed has

USD GBP The BoE kept interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting. The central bank is leaning towards keeping interest rates “higher for longer”, although it keeps a door open for further tightening if inflationary pressures were to be more persistent. BoE Governor Bailey repeated that they will keep rates high for long

The AUDUSD corrected higher today and in the process snapped a 5-day down streak for the pair (higher USD in the process). The correction higher, however, it did find willing sellers against its falling 100-hour moving average of 0.63914. Ultimately if the buyers are to take control, they need to get above – and stay

In this morning video on November 13, 2023, I kickstart the Forex trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What are the biases, the risks, the targets for those three major currency pairs? EURUSD: The EURUSD moved higher in the Asian and early European session today. In the process the

S&P indexes moving above its 100 day moving average The S&P index is currently trading near session highs, up 60.44 points or 1.39% at 4407.92, and in the process has broken above its 100-day moving average of 4402.47 (see the blue line in the chart above). The last time it traded above this moving average

US crude futures settle at $77.17. That’s up $1.43 or 1.89% on the day. For the trading week, oil prices are trading up around 2.07% The high for the day reached $77.69. The low price reached $75.36. Catalysts include: Concerns over global growth took precedence in the market, overshadowing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

The EURUSD on Monday of this week reached up to test the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the October low near 1.07642. A high price on Monday reached 1.0756 just 8 pips short of that key target. EURUSD stalled the rally this week at the 38.2% retracement After a

The USDCHF is higher on the week, but the price action has been up and down, especially over the last 4 trading days. Technically, the price has been moving above and below technical levels like the: 200-day moving average currently at 0.8999, 100-hour moving average currently at 0.9044, and the 50% midpoint of the move

The AUDUSD is down for the 5th consecutive day. Recall on Friday last week, and then on Monday, the price of the AUDUSD was testing/moving above it’s key 100-day MA near 0.6515. The high price reached 0.65224, but ultimately stalled and started a run to the downside, leading to a move from 06522 to the

In this morning video on November 10, 2023, I kickstart the Forex trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What are the biases, the risks, the targets for those three major currency pairs? What is the longer term daily chart saying and what is the bias in the shorter term?

The USDCAD is extending higher on the day (see hourly chart below), and in the process is trading to new highs for the week as well. The high price in the USDCAD just reached 1.38292. Looking at the hourly chart below, the pair is also extending away from a swing level near 1.3813. Looking at

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed with gains in the GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD (the biggest mover with the USD up 0.22%) and the NZD. The EUR and the CHF is

The USDCHF moved higher off of the Fed Chair comments and in the process has extended above its 200-hour moving average currently at 0.9024 and the broken 38.2% retracement of the move up from the October 24 low. That level comes in at 0.9026. Staying above both those levels would now keep the bias more

NASDAQ index is a back below its 100 day moving average The NASDAQ index has moved back below its 100-day moving average at 13615.60. That index moved above its 100-day moving average on Tuesday and closed above it for 2 consecutive days. Those 2 days were one day longer than the October break which had