Technical Analysis

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies (2023) As 2023, comes to an end, the CHF is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies while the JPY is the weakest. The CHF benefitted from flight to safety flows on the US banking crisis and global tensions, and then took a

SPX yearly Oh to have a time machine. A look at long-term US equities is a humbling exercise. The index started 1994 at 466, and while it suffered a loss that year, it has since risen 10-fold, paying dividends along the way. That’s an incredible 30-year return. Skip ahead to the final trading day of

US major indices are trading marginally higher in early US trading. Dow Industrial Average is trading up 51.00.16 percent at 37717.80 S&P index is up up 9.28 points or 0.19% at 4790.60 Nasdaq index is up up 25.42.00.17 percent at 15125.42 The Russell 2000 of small-cap stocks is taking a breather today with a decline

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed to lower thanks to declines vs the JPY and CHF. There are modest gains vs the GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD. Today, US initial jobless claims

The major European indices have gotten off to a modest positive start in the shortened holiday week of trading. Most of the indices were closed yesterday and also on Monday. Snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.21% France CAC, +0.04% UK FTSE 100 +0.36% Spain’s Ibex +0.10% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.12% As European

The EURUSD is running higher as USD sellers exert their pressure after the weaker Richmond Fed regional index. The EURUSD price action has now moved within a swing area between 1.1095 and 1.11346. It would take a move above that area to increase bullish bias. The next target would come at the March 2022 high

US 10 year yield below the closing level from 2022 The US 10-year yield is trading at 3.844% currently. That is down 4.0 basis points on the day. The decline today is moving the yield below the closing level from the end of 2022 at 3.886%. The last five trading days have been trading above

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The holiday shortened week will keep the action limited. THe major currencies are scrunched together. The order can shift fairly easily. The US dollar is mixed and little changes.

USDCAD below the 100 week MA The USDCAD on the weekly chart is trading below its 100-week MA at 1.3278. A close below that MA would be the first since May 2022. That would be more bearish technically. Staying below keeps the sellers in firm control. Having said that the pair moved down to test

Crude oil falls back to the 50% midpoint Crude oil has taken a dip lower and is now negative on a day. The current price trades at $73.54 after peaking at $74.95 an hour or so ago. The run to the downside has now taken the price below its 100-hour movie average at $73.75. The

GBPUSD buyers trying to push higher (again) The GBPUSD buyers are trying to push the pair above a swing area and into more open space. Having said that, the buyers are “trying”. The swing area is between 1.2723 and 1.2732 (see red numbered circles on the chart above). Looking at the chart above, there has

EURUSD trades to highest since August 2023 The EURUSD has moved to a new week high and high going back to August 10. The next key target is that August 10 high at 1.10648. The high price today reached 1.10395 today. A move above 1.10648 will have traders targeting a swing area on the daily

The major US indices are trading higher after tame core and headline PCE data out of the US this morning. The good news is inflation is melting away. There is some worry, however. Nike reported their earnings after the close yesterday and their guidance was not all that rosy. Shares of Nike are trading down

USDJPY below the 200 day MA and 38.2% retracement The USDJPY is trading toward the low for the day after an up and down run after the data dump at 8:30 AM. The key was the PCE inflation data. Inflation in the US is clearly trending lower. The market is chatting about the shorter term

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies The GBP is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins. Admittedly, the changes are relatively modest with the major indices scrunched together. The ranges are also relatively modest compared to the 22 day averages (about a month of trading –

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Crude oil futures are settling at $73.89. That’s down $-0.33 or -0.44%. The high price today reached $74.55. The low price reached $72.47. Looking at the daily chart below, the low price today stalled near the low from November at $72.37. That is a close support level for the pair going forward. Crude oil bottoms

USDJPY falls back below the 200 day MA and 38.2% retracement The USDJPY – over the last 6 trading days – has seen price action trade above and below the 38.2% of the 2023 trading range and the 200-day MA at 142.47 to 142.70 respectively. Yesterday, the price traded the whole day above those levels

USD The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with a shift in the statement that indicated the end of the tightening cycle. The Summary of Economic Projections showed a downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was

The USDCAD is making a new session high and in the process is taking a peek above a swing area between 1.3348 and 1.3353. Getting and staying above the area, and then testing – and moving above – the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.37707 would be needed to increase the bullish bias and give

USDCAD bounces in the swing area on the daily chart The USDCAD fell to a new cycle low and moved into a swing area between 1.3298 to 1.3320. The low price has reached 1.33146. The price has bounced back as traders leaned in the swing area on the first test. The price is back above

USDCAD runs to swing area between 1.3298 to 1.33203 USDCAD is moving to a new low going back to early August. The fall takes the pair toward the swing area that was in play earlier this year. That area on the daily chart comes in between 1.3298 to 1.33203. In April and May swing lows

GBPUSD is sharply higher today The GBPUSD is extending back toward its earlier highs at 1.2750 as European traders look to exit for the day. The GBPUSD moved higher in the European session. The UK CBI Trends Orders for December showed a significant improvement, with the orders figure reaching -23.0, a notable increase from the

EURUSD buyers remain in control The EURUSD moved sharply higher last week helped by Fed Chair Powell’s comments after the FOMC rate decision. The FOMC dot plot was also a contributing factor to the lower dollar (higher EURUSD). The upside momentum continued on Thursday with the price reaching up toward the high prices from the

USD The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected with a shift in the statement that indicated the end of the tightening cycle. The Summary of Economic Projections showed a downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three

Crude oil futures are settling at $71.43. That’s down -$0.15 or -0.21%. For the trading week, the price is little change at +0.25%. The low for the week reached $67.71. The high for the week was up at $72.56. Looking at the weekly chart below, the price traded this week above and below the 200-week

The AUDUSD moved sharply higher the last two days and in the process moved above the 50% of the 2023 range at 0.67134 on both trading days. Both days also stalled at 0.6728. Buyers of the shot on a number of attempts above the 50% midpoint, and each time they missed. On the downside, the

The EURUSD has ticked to a new low for the day, but as mentioned in the kickstart video from early today, the 1.0900 level is a key support target. Earlier today, the low price reached 1.09036 and bounced. The low price just reached 1.0902 and is stalling the fall. In this video, I outline the

The USDCAD bottomed near a key swing area target at 1.3370 – 1.33776 (see red numbered circles on the chart below). The low prices reached 1.33725 and bounced. The move to the upside has reached 1.3402. That level is near the broken 61.8% retracement of the move up from the July low at 1.33999 (call

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not