Technical Analysis

The EURUSD sellers had their shot with the price moving below the 100-day MA yesterday and trying to stay below in the Asian session today. That move did not last as traders leaned against a swing area and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Sellers turned to buyers and the price started to

The GBPUSD moved lower and to new week lows in the European trading session, but after testing is a 200-hour moving average, sellers turned to buyers and started a run to the upside. That move to the upside was helped by lower inflation expectations from the Michigan consumer sentiment report. Technically the price moved back

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The AUDUSD is moving higher today helped in part by higher US stocks. The University of Michigan inflation expectations was also more tame, which is lowering the value of the US dollar (increasing the AUDUSD). The price has now moved up to test its 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6625. Move above

USDCAD tumbles lower The USDCAD is tumbling to the downside despite stronger durable goods in the US, weaker retail sales in Canada, and stronger University of Michigan (but with lower inflation expectations). The preliminary retail sales for April in Canada showed a 0.7% increase which may be supporting the currency a bit. Looking at the

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Crude oil futures are settling at $76.87. That is down $-0.70 or -0.90%.. The low price reached $76.46. The high price reached $78.63. At session highs the price stayed below it’s 100 day-moving average (blue line). At session lows the price did break below the March 11 low at $76.82, the May 8 low at

US interest rates have finally taken a toll on the S&P index. The 10-year yield is up around five basis points and the two-year is up 6.2 basis points. That rising rates has been able to wear away at the S&P gains seen after Nvidia’s strong earnings after the close. S&P gains have been worn

Fundamental Overview Despite some softness against the other major currencies, the USD continued to gain against the JPY as the Yen remains under pressure from risk-on sentiment due to positive global growth impulse and the stark yield differential with the Fed, which is expected to keep rates steady at least until September. In such an

The EURUSD has moved to new lows in the last hour of trading. The move lower has taken the price within a couple of pips of the key 100-day moving average 1.08156. Risk-focused traders are stepping in against that moving average level on the first look, hoping for a bounce back to the upside. If

The RBNZ kept rate unchanged but raised their rate projections going forward. That was more hawkish and sent the NZDUSD higher. However after reaching swing area resistance between 0.6148 in 0.6159, buyers turned to sellers. Gov. Orrs comments were thought to be less hawkish, helping to push the price back down. That move lower has

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally under pressure since the benign US CPI report last week as the hawkish expectations subsided and the market switched its focus from inflation back to growth. This triggered a positive risk sentiment which is generally negative for the greenback and benefited the other major currencies. The EUR, on

The USDCHF has had its upsa and downs today (and this week), with the buyers now making a play after holding support at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at session lows today. The ability to hold that support and them push above the 50% retracement of the May trading range, has given

The buyers had a shot to run higher after the Canadian CPI data this morning suggested that the BOC might have enough proof to cut rates in June. However, after running higher and extending to the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.36736, technical sellers who could define and limit risk leaned

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally under pressure since the benign US CPI report last week as the hawkish expectations subsided and the market switched its focus from inflation back to growth. This triggered a positive risk sentiment with risk assets like stocks and bitcoin gaining ground. Such an environment is generally negative for

USDJPY bases off 155.95 The USDJPY moved lower in the European session today, after an Asian session run up that moved up to test a swing area near 155.95. The subsequent move higher took the price to and through a swing level at 155.95. After that break, the price did rotate lower, but found support

EURUSD keeps banging at the 100 hour MA Looking at the hourly chart of the EURUSD below, the 100-hour MA has been in play over the last 7 or so trading days. The tests of the moving average over that time has found support buyers ahead or soon after a small dip below the MA

Fundamental Overview Last week, we saw the USDJPY pair falling after the US CPI report as the market shrugged off rate hikes fears and consolidated the Fed’s higher for longer stance. The following day, the JPY started to lose ground again as not only the interest rates differential remains strong, but we have also the

The USDCHF moved lower with the USD selling earlier today, and in the process moved down to test the 200 hour moving average at 0.90653. Support buyers leaned against the level and pushed the price back higher. The pair is trading between the 100/200 bar MAs on the topside at 0.9091 (and a swing area

The USD has reversed back to the downside versus the major currencies. In this updated technical look, I outline how the technicals have helped to reverse the markets, and in some cases reverse the gains turning the buys back to the downside for the greenback, and for others, move to the target support/resistance. In this

The USDCAD has now retraced the earlier gains in trading today. The price is now down testing a swing area between 1.3604 and 1.3615. A move below that level will have traders looking toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2024 low to the high price reached in April. That level

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The USDCHF has moved back toward the high for the week, and in the process is retesting a swing area between 0.9087 – 0.90978, and converged 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4- hour chart at 0.90915. The high price installed near 0.90978, and the price has rotated back lower and below the

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Fundamental Overview The more dovish than expected FOMC decision eventually marked the bottom in many risk assets including Bitcoin. In addition, the benign US CPI figures on Wednesday were the trigger for the risk-on sentiment that took US stocks to new all-time highs and boosted the cryptocurrency. As long as the positive sentiment holds, we

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been rallying almost non-stop since the FOMC meeting, and thanks to the miss in the NFP report and the benign CPI report the price eventually hit a new all-time high yesterday. We are currently seeing a bit of a pullback, which is totally normal after such a strong run.

In the kickstart video today (CLICK HERE), I spoke to the corrective move lower in the EURUSD and what needed to happen to either give the sellers more control, or keep the buyers in control. More specifically, I spoke to the 5-minute chart below, showed how the 100/200 bar MAs were holding resistance once broken

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The AUDUSD moved sharply higher yesterday helped by risk-on sentiment. The pair extended above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the December high at 0.66759, and also a swing area up to 0.66896. However, momentum faded in the Asia-Pacific session today, and the price rotated back below that 61.8% retracement level. The move

The NZDUSD is racing higher today as “risk-on” flows = Buy NZDUSD (at least today). Technically, the price moved back above the 100 day MA at 0.6088 and then the 50% of the move down from the December 2023 high at 0.6109. Those levels are now close risk levels for buyers. Staying above give the