Technical Analysis

Russell 2000 daily This is what regime change in the stock market looks like. On Wednesday, the Russell 2000 surged on a soft CPI report and it bumped higher yesterday on PPI. But here we are at the lows of the week and at a six-week low, as it reversed a 2% gain. For 18

The USDCHF rebounded earlier this week in the process extended above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May high to the June low. The level came in at 0.8986. However, momentum cannot be sustained in the price started rotation to the downside helped by the weaker CPI on Wednesday. The low for

The Michigan survey numbers were much weaker than expectations. Despite the sharp declines, the dollar is steady and trading near highs vs the EUR and GBP. The Michigan survey may be losing some of its bite as politics takes control going into the election. If you are Trump supporter, the situation is dire. If you

The USDCAD this week initially moved lower with the USD selling after the US CPI report on Wednesday. However, the pair ran into technical support at the 100/200 bar MAs on the 4-hour chart and started the bounce higher. See the post here: The subsequent move back to the upside has now retraced the full

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. The EURUSD yesterday moved to a swing area support (between 1.0720 and 1.0734) and found temporary support, but in the Asian session today, that area was broken and it opened the door for further selling momentum. That

The NZDUSD has corrected lower today after extending to a key swing area yesterday on the better CPI and finding sellers. The move lower today has moved down to test the 200-hour MA at 0.6162. Yesterday, the price moved above that MA level on the back of the tamer CPI data. Buyers on the dip,

EURUSD tests swing area going back to January/February The EURUSD has continued to move to the downside after earlier breaking below its 200-day moving average of 1.07854. The price has since moved to and through a modest swing area near 1.0752, and is now testing another more significant swing year between 1.07198, and 1.07346. This

Admittedly, the USDCHF is non-trending with up-and-down price action today. There was an extreme reached after the US PPI and claims data with the price extending to a session low of 0.89318. However, momentum could not be sustained and the price moved higher. The move higher did stay below its rising 100-hour moving average at

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The AUDUSD has moved sharply higher after the better-than-expected US CPI data. The move to the upside has taken the price to the 0.67000 level. Just above that level is the May 2024 high at the same level. The dual level increases the levels importance going forward (and through the FOMC rate decision). Going forward

The USDCAD moved lower on the better-than-expected CPI data, and the oil has now taken the price to the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the four hour chart between 1.3679 and 1.3684. So far that level has been able to hold support. It would take a move below that level to increase the

The NZDUSD fell sharply on Friday and fell below its 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. That level comes in at 0.6136. The first two days of the trading week has seen the price move up toward that moving average level. The price of the EURUSD got within four pips of it in trade

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The market is having second thoughts about Apple’s AI strategy. Early reviews of yesterday’s Apple event that released an OpenAI integration were poor, with the stock falling 2%. Analysts weighed in though and now the market is thinking this could lead to an upgrade cycle and the shares are up more than 5% to an

The GBPUSD moved lower in the Asian and early morning European session, but stalled the fall after buyers leaned against a swing area between 1.2674 and 1.2685. The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 9 low is also in that area. The subsequent bounce has taken the price up to retest its

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The USDCHF is consolidating and trading up and down in a relatively narrow trading range between 0.8954 in 0.8982. At session highs, the price fell short of its 38.2% retracement and 200-hour moving average. Those levels dominate 0.8986 and 0.8983 respectively. On the downside, the low price stalled near a corrective low from Friday’s trade

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The AUD is one of the weakets of the major currencies (along with the NZD). Commodities are sharply lower on the back of the higher dollar/higher rates/a more stubborn Fed. Technically, the price has moved lower to test a cluster of support including the 38.2% retracement at 0.6579, a swing area between 0.6579 to 0.6585.

EURUSD reaches 100 day MA The US non-farm payroll came in stronger than expected. That sent the USD higher and the EURUSD to new lows for the week. The move lower has now reached to – and now through – the 38.2% of the move up from the May 1 low. That level comes in

Major US stock indices have now erased all the declines. The gains are led by the Dow Industrial Average retreated up 0.56%. The NASDAQ index is now up 0.14%: Dow Industrial Average average up 213 points or 0.56% at 39096 S&P index up 16.10 points or 0.30% at 5369.50 NASDAQ index of 23.76 points or

The Canada jobs report came in more or less as expected. However, the US jobs report was stronger. That has the US dollar higher, including the USDCAD. However, traders are running into swing area resistance defined by recent highs from the last three trading weeks. Those highs come between 1.3733 and 1.3742. It will take

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest of the major currencies the USD is in the middle little changed with gains vs the CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD and declines vs the EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Fundamental Overview The USD has been on the backfoot since the beat in the US ISM Services PMI where the data showed that the last month drop was just a blip and overall we have a resilient economy with lower inflationary pressures. The data continues to reinforce the narrative that the next move is more

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq this week rallied strongly following the beat in the US ISM Services PMI where the data showed that the last month drop was just a blip and overall we have a resilient economy with lower inflationary pressures. The data continues to reinforce the narrative that the next move is more likely

Crude oil futures are settling at $75.55. That is up $1.48 or 2.0%. The high price today reached $75.79. The low price was at $74.06. The price bottom this week at $72.48 on Tuesday. For the trading week the price is still down -1.9% or $-1.46, but well off the low of $-4.51. Crude oil

EURUSD looks to retest the May high The EURUSD traders have moved up to test the May high on two separate times today. The first time in the Asian session found willing sellers against the level, and the price rotated lower. The second time in the early New York session after the ECB lower rates

The ECB cut rates but does not commit to a path of future rate moves: ECBs expects growth to pick up to 0.9% in 2024 vs 0.7% prev. Inflation forecast 2.5% in 2024 (vs 2.3% prev), 2.2% in 2025 (versus 2.1% prev) and 1.9% in 2026 (vs 1.9% prev). Growth forecast 1.4% in 2025 vs

The AUDUSD is lower on the day but did find support buyers near support at 0.6622. The bounce higher, however, has moved up to test the low of a cluster of moving averages between 0.66448 and 0.66545. As long as the price can remain below those moving averages, keeps sellers more in control. Overall, the