Technical Analysis

In the new trading day in Australia, the employment report will be released.That report will likely have an impact on the prices. Knowing the key technical levels is a way to map out the roadmap for the event. On the downside, the key area comes between 0.6708 and 0.6713. Her level corresponds with the rising

As the US trading session draws to a close, the USD/CHF has reached a key swing target area between 0.8818 and 0.88267. This level is crucial for both buyers and sellers. For dip buyers, it offers a low-risk entry point; if the price falls below this range, exiting is advisable to avoid potential market breaks.

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. Yesterday, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending might have been exaggerated. Overall, this should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk

The EURUSD moved lower in the US session and in the process moved down to test the 50% midpoint of the trading range since the December 2023 high. That level comes in at 1.08695. The current price is at 1.0888. The bounce off that support target is a key bounce and bullish signal. Going back

Gold is trading at $37 and 74% or 1.57% at $2459.70. The high price today reach $2462.50. The move to the upside today has taken the price above the May 20 all-time high price at $2450.10. It is a new record high for the precious metal. Spot gold is up around 19.25% in 2024. Since

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release

The price of crude oil futures is settling at $81.91. That is down $-0.30 or -0.36%. The high price reached $82.58. The low price was at $81.47. Technically looking at the daily chart the price remains below a topside trendline near $84.75. On the downside, the rising 100-day moving average is at $80.54 and remains

The NZDUSD is trading in a neutral technical area defined by a series of moving averages. On the topside: 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.61025 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6124 On the downside: 200-day MA at 0.6078 100-day MA at 0.6064 The current price sits between those levels at 0.60877

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release

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The 2-10 year spread has not been positive since July 2022. The most recent high close (most narrow negative spread) is coming near -16 basis point. Today the spread rose to -27.3 basis point which would be its highest close since January 29. Since June 25, the spread has moved from -50 basis points to

Crude oil futures are settling the day at $82.21. That is down $0.41 or -0.50%. For the trading week, the price is down -1.21% after closing last week at $83.16. The decline is the first after four consecutive weeks of gains which took the price up from a low during the week of June 3

The US stocks are trading near highs after some declines yesterday. The correction was one day – at least for the S&P and the Nasdaq. The Dow industrial Average rose yesterday as did the small-cap Russell 2000. Today, all the major indices are enjoying strong gains. For the S&P, it erased its -49.37 or -0.88%

If there is someone on CNBC, that I like, it is Josh Brown from Ritholz Wealth Management. He does his homework. He is not opposed to using technicals (in fact he often relies on it). He accepts defeat. He lets his wins run. He is not perfect of course, but he makes a lot of

EURUSD extends to the swing area The EURUSD, like the GBPUSD, has stretched to new highs as European traders look toward the exits for the week. The move higher takes the price toward the high from June 2024 at 1.0915 and into a longer swing area between 1.0909 and 1.0918. That area will need to

The GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDJPY have all stretched to key targets today as the USD got hit. However, after reaching those target there has been some modest profit taking/selling/buying (dependent on the direction of the pair). The NZDUSD is also in that boat as it returned to the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart

GBPUSD stretches toward the July 27 high and 1.3000 level The GBPUSD continues to stretch to the July 27 hi target at 1.2995. That is just short of the natural resistance at 1.3000. The high just reach 1.29898. There should be willing sellers/profit taking against that level with stops on a move above. Risk is

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some goldilocks data as the US CPI report came in on the softer side and the US Jobless Claims remained stable. Despite this, the Nasdaq sold off and erased all the gains from the US NFP report. The culprit seemed to be rotation being driven by hedge funds facing short

The USDCAD moved lower on the USD selling immediately after the US CPI data. However the fall in the pair extended down toward key support near the 200 day moving average at 1.3595 and the 38.2% retracement of the range since the December 2023 low at 1.35899. That 38.2% retracement level has stalled the fall

The NZDUSD moved sharply higher after the tamer than expected US CPI data sent the USD lower. That moved to the upside took the price above a cluster of moving averages including: 200-hour movie area to 0.61024 100-bar moving out on the four hour chart at 0.61059 100-hour moving out in 0.61136, and even the

The past few days I’ve been posting about the trending GBPJPY. The pair has been trending since it’s most recent swing low back on June 14. Initially, the price needed to get back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages. Then it needed to stay above those moving averages, and it has (see point

The price of WTI crude futures are settling at $82.10. That is up $0.69 or 0.85%. The gains come after three consecutive losing sessions, and was driven by a bullish OPEC demand forecast and a significant drop in U.S. inventories. The EIA reported a 3.4 million-barrel drawdown in U.S. oil inventories, surpassing the expected 1.3

GBPUSD moves to high for the week The GBPUSD has extended higher and in the process has moved above a swing area between 1.28168 and 1.28272 and extended to the high price from Monday at 1.28449. The price is also near a downward-sloping trendline connecting recent highs at 1.2849. So far traders have leaned against

Fundamental Overview Gold erased all the gains from the US NFP report on Monday with some pointing to the news of China remaining on pause for the second consecutive month on gold purchases as the likely culprit. Overall, nothing has changed fundamentally, and the bullish bias should remain intact. As of now, it looks like

Ther GBPJPY continues to skim along the 100 hour MA The GBPJPY has been trending higer since mid-June. That move to the topside has been using the 100 and 200 hour MAs since mid-June as the roadmap or guiding light. When there were some dips below the 100 hour MA, either the 200 hour MA

The USDJPY has caught a bid as yields move higher (10 year up around 5 basis points). Chair Powell is more neutral. The US treasury will auction 3, 10, and 30 year coupon issues this week. Perhaps higher yield is being impacted by the need to push them higher to attract buyers. The move to

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board since last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market

The NZDUSD rallied toward the end of last week’s trading, after sellers had their shot on the break of both the 100/200 day MAs earlier in the week. The move higher initially extended to the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, before correcting lower midweek. On Friday, buyers returned after the US jobs report

The AUDUSD has been trading up and down today after last week’s move higher. The run higher today extended up to a new high going back to January. That high stalled right near the January 4 swing high before its rotation lower (at that time). The subsequent fall from the January 4 high, took 3/4

The USDCHF is trading to new lows for the week today after rallying into resistance at the start of the trading week (on Monday). That upside resistance came within a swing area between 0.9044 and 0.90565. The subsequent move to the downside did try to find support against its 100-day moving average midweek, but ultimately