Technical Analysis

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Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some strong US data as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. All the major currencies gained against the Yen for two main reasons. The first is that yields rose across the board as the market continues to price out the aggressive rate cuts

USD/JPY daily USD/JPY soared after stronger US retail sales but stalled right at a key level. It rose to 149.32, just two pips shy of the 38.2% retracement of the swan dive from 161.80 to 141.67. It’s stalled there and backed off to 148.96. The Fibonnaci level is a classic barrier in a bounce from

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on a steady rise ever since the last week’s US Jobless Claims as the data quelled the fears around the labour market following the weak NFP report. The “growth scare” triggered by the ugly ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weak NFP report looks to be behind us for now.

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on a steady rise ever since the last week’s US Jobless Claims as the data quelled the fears around the labour market following the weak NFP report. The “growth scare” triggered by the ugly ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weak NFP report looks to be behind us for

Fundamental Overview The price action in the Russell 2000 has been mostly rangebound in the past couple of weeks although the sentiment continues to favour more upside. The “growth scare” after the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the NFP report looks to be behind us thanks to the US Jobless Claims last week. This week we

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. That led to a key breakout in the NZDUSD pair which didn’t last as the RBNZ tonight cut rates by 25

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. The UK CPI this morning missed estimates across the board as well and raised the probabilities of a back-to-back cut in

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. For the Fed, the market is split between a 25 and 50 bps cut in September and a total of 107

The major US indices got a boost from lower-than-expected PPI data. Tomorrow the CPI will be released. The PPI data does not necessarily translate into the CPI, but there is some crossover to the PCE data that will be released later this month. Tomorrow, CPI is expected to show a 0.2% gain after a -0.1%

Crude oil futures are settling at $78.35, which is down -$1.71 or -2.14%. The high price today reached $80.11 which was just short of the 100-day MA (blue line on the chart below). Yesterday, the price approached that MA and found willing sellers as well. On the downside, the 200-day MA (green line) looms at

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 bounced strongly from the lows last week following the good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report. That’s been also evident from the market pricing for rate cuts as expectations for a 50 bps cut

The USDJPY has moved lower as the day comes to a close and in the process is moving closer to near converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages. In the new trading day, if the price can stay above those moving averages, the bias would remain more positive. Conversely, break below and look for more

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Fundamental Overview The losses peaked for the Canadian Dollar last Monday as the volatility normalised, and we got some good US data throughout the week. That helped to turn around the risk sentiment and give the Loonie a boost. The market has been slowly paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for the Fed as

The Canada jobs data had something for everyone today. The unemployment rate was steady vs. last month at 6.4%, but lower than the estimate of 6.5%. The employment data showed a decline of -2.8K for the 2nd consecutive month decline, but there was 61K of full time jobs but -64K of part time jobs. So

The NZDUSD fell to a new low for the year on Monday on the back of the sharp fall in the Nikkei 225 (-12.4%). However, that new low only took out the April 2024 low by a few pips, and the price snapped higher. The momentum stalled near highs from last week nearly 0.5982 and

The AUDUSD moved to the lowest level since November 2023 on Monday as Japan stocks plummeted. However, after breaking below the low from 2024 at 0.63614, the price could only make it to 0.6348 before it snapped back to the upside and started to start the recovery. Although that recovery had its fits and starts

On Wednesday, the USDCHF moved back above its 100-hour moving average and although the price corrected lower into yesterday’s Asian and early European session, the downside momentum found willing buyers near that moving average level. The subsequent rise on the back of higher US stocks yesterday (and the unwinding of the flight to safety flows

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report last Friday. The market pricing for rate cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of a

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report last Friday. The market pricing for rate cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of

Fundamental Overview Gold erased most of the losses from the Monday’s global stock market rout as the ISM Services PMI and especially the US Jobless Claims yesterday improved the risk sentiment. This might be just a retracement of the liquidations experienced on Monday as it doesn’t look like there are strong reasons for a rally

The scare for lower growth and increasing unemployment was lessened today after initial jobless claims came in lower-than-expected 233K versus 250K last week. Maybe the employment picture is not so alarming after all. If bad data is bad for the market, good data has to be good for the market, and that is what we

The AUD/USD is reaching new session highs, breaking above two of four key technical levels: the 50% retracement of the move down from July at 0.6473 and the 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at 0.6577. The current price is trading at 0.6586. The next targets are the 200-day moving average at 0.6592 and

Fundamental Overview The market is still licking its wounds as the price action remains tentative ahead of the US Jobless Claims today. The ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weak US NFP report of last week are still fresh in everyone’s mind. At the moment the market is expecting the Fed to cut rates

The major US stock indices are giving back some of their gains. Although they are still higher on the day, there has been some damage done technically. Looking at the S&P index, it opened today and moved above its 100-day moving average at 5309.32. The high price for the day reached 5330.64 but has since