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Gold price ticks lower on Wednesday as the USD surges to a four-month high. The Trump trade is back in play following the initial US election exit poll results.  Expectations for a spike in volatility lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. Gold price (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to break through the $2,748-2,750 hurdle and

Preliminary results of Pennsylvania exit poll from Edison Research: Trump wins 43% of women voters, Harris wins 55%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020 Trump wins 50% of white women voters, Harris wins 48%; Trump share down 2 pts from 2020 Trump wins 58% of white male voters, Harris wins 40%; Trump share down

AUD/USD climbs as RBA Governor Michelle Bullock emphasizes the need to maintain a restrictive rate stance. US presidential election remains the main driver for AUD/USD ahead of Trump-Harris debate. Trump’s victory expected to be unfavorable for AUD due to his promise to raise tariffs on China. In Tuesday’s session, the AUD/USD rose 0.77% to 0.6638

I spoke with Reuters today about the Canadian dollar. It’s surprisingly stronger given that Trump trades are working. “We could just be seeing some position squaring. The Canadian dollar has been a heavily shorted currency,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. “The Canadian dollar is one of the clear election night trades along

EUR/USD rises to near 1.0900 as the US presidential elections kicks-off, which will influence market sentiment. Investors expect a neck-to-neck competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps in the December meeting. EUR/USD gains to near 1.0890 in Tuesday’s New York session. The major currency pair remains shy of

UA Zensen is Japan’s largest industrial trade union and represents workers mostly at small and medium-sized firms. And once again – similar to earlier this year – they are calling for at least a standard 6% increase in total wages going into the spring wage negotiations in 2025. For some context, the wage hike asked

Gold price slides to a one-week low amid some repositioning trades ahead of the US election. Fed rate cut bets, falling US bond yields and subdued USD demand could lend some support. Middle East tensions might further contribute to limiting losses for the safe-haven XAU/USD. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session

British Retail Consortium (BRC) total sales in October +0.6% y/y, weakest growth since July prior (September) +2.0% like-for-like sales +0.3% y/y (prior +1.7%) Barclaycard UK October consumer spending +0.7% y/y, also the weakest growth since July prior +1.2% prior +2.0% From the reports, in brief: Factors like budget uncertainty, delayed purchases until Black Friday, and

AUD/USD surges higher in light of hawkish RBA and uncertainty over US election. US Dollar weakens on speculation of Kamala Harris victory and Fed’s dovish rate cut bets. US Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed, missing estimates and casting doubt on Fed’s aggressive rate cut path. The AUD/USD surged higher on Monday, rising by 0.70% to 0.6600 amid

Harris from her Montreal highschool yearbook The world of foreign exchange is multi-variate so you never get a full grasp on what’s moving a currency on any given day. Economics always overshadows politics and the US election has been playing out in the background for months. There are certainly election trades in equities and other

Gold is up a quarter of a percent at the start of the week as the US Dollar slides lower.  Gold, which is priced predominantly in USD, gets a lift from the Trump trade unwinding  The US presidential election is too close to call, hedge funds are still long Gold and Iran saber-rattling boosts haven

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The Australian Dollar appreciated as the TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3% MoM in October, up from previous 0.1% increase. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday. The US Dollar may receive support from safe-haven flow amid uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election results on

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan on holiday. Tuesday: China Caixin Services PMI, RBA Policy Decision, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, BoC Meeting Minutes, New Zealand Labour Market report, US Presidential Election. Wednesday: Eurozone PPI. Thursday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, Eurozone Retail Sales, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims, FOMC Policy Decision. Friday: Canada Labour

Earlier I wrote a post highlighting why Presidential betting odds have tightened. Well, in the last hour they’ve tightened further and it’s from a somewhat shocking place — Iowa. It was once a swing state but Trump won it by a large margin in 2016 and 2020. It’s largely been abandoned by the Harris campaign.

Here the latest odds on betting sites for the Presidential election: PredictIt – tied Kalshi 55% Trump, 45% Harris (from as wide as 65-35) Polymarket 59% Trump, 41% Harris Betting sites around 58 Trump, 42% Harris Now there should be some kind of arb there but I don’t think it’s wise, and definitely don’t do

Mexican Peso tanks as USD/MXN rises over 1.50% weekly, reaching new yearly highs. US Dollar Index climbs as Treasury yields jump, boosting Greenback strength. Mexican economic data shows resilience, but US elections add uncertainty for emerging market currencies. The Mexican Peso depreciated sharply against the Greenback on Friday and recorded new yearly highs of 20.29,

21Shares joins two other investment firms to submit a filing for an XRP ETF.  Crypto community members share thoughts on potential approval of an XRP ETF, considering SEC’s appeal against Judge Torres’s Ripple ruling. The upcoming US presidential elections could be a major determinant of whether the ETF gets approved. 21Shares filed an S-1 registration

US Dollar retreated after posting solid gains in recent weeks. Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 12,000 in October, falling short of market expectations. Markets remain almost fully pricing in a 25 bps cut by the Fed next week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies,

AUD/USD declines due to modest US dollar gains after a packed economic calendar. Weak Chinese PMIs weigh on the Australian Dollar. RBA expected to maintain a hawkish stance, supporting AUD/USD, but concerns over China’s economy linger. The AUD/USD pair declined by 0.40% to 0.6560 in Friday’s session, pressured by a modest US dollar recovery and

Markets: Gold down $10 to $2734 US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 4.38% WTI crude oil up 20-cents to $69.46 S&P 500 up 0.4% GBP leads, CHF lags The crosscurrents in markets continued on Friday as we count down to the US election. It’s tough to separate moves based on economic data from election

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

NZD/JPY has been trading sideways recently, with mixed signals from technical indicators. The pair is currently supported at 90.70 and faces resistance at 91.90. There are some signs of bearish momentum mounting which could threaten the 20-day SMA. Friday’s trading saw the NZD/JPY pair continue its sideways movement of the past sessions. The pair exhibits

Dow climbs 0.71%, rebounding as softer data fuels rate-cut speculation. S&P 500 and Nasdaq follow, both gaining over 0.6% amid broad optimism. Amazon shines with 6.5% rise; Apple lags with 1.5% drop on weak China sales. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posted solid gains of close to almost 300 points or 0.71% on Friday,

The Canadian dollar is in a tough spot. The US dollar rose 15 pips against the loonie today to 1.3950, which is the first time at that level since 2022. The next level to watch is 1.3978, as a rise above that level would be the highest since the pandemic. And other than a brief

US 10s daily US 10-year yields traded as low as 4.22% after non-farm payrolls but have rebounded to 4.32%. It’s tough to say what’s driven the reversal but here is a stab at it: The non-farm payroll report was skewed by the hurricanes and strikes and the market thinks the jobs maket is good ISM

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is unchanged on the session, holding in the low 1.39 area just below yesterday’s high which marked a virtual pinpoint retest of the August spot peak, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD holds near low “Back then, the USD closed well off the high and down on the session.

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

WTI price gained ground due to rising geopolitical tensions amid reports that Iran may attack Israel. Israeli intelligence believes Iran intends to launch numerous drones and ballistic missiles before the US presidential election. US Oil production increased by 1.5% in August, reaching a monthly record high of 13.4 million barrels per day. West Texas Intermediate