Technical Analysis

BOC Poloz: Inflation is very close to target

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Speaks to CPI, tariffs and normalizing policy

  • One time effects sent the CPI above the 2% target
  • In the process of normalization
  • On path of rate hikes
  • Economy is more sensitive to rates because of the debt.
  • The economies were not all correlated at the start of the recovery
  • We are in the process of normalization, the economy is more sensitive to interest rate hikes
  • Tarriffs are a major risk to the Canadian economy
  • Canada economy is much more trade dependent
  • tariffs causing companies to delay investment
  • Believe can work out NAFTA issues 

Poloz will be on a panel tomorrow.  That will be the last time he will be speaking before the September meeting. 

The probability of a rate hike is around 30% in September:

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