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In the video above, I take a look at both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Both pairs moved lower into the yearend reaching new lows for the year on the very last day of the calendar year.
In the first few days of 2025, the price has moved higher with strong gains earlier today coming with stronger momentum.
AUD/USD Analysis:
The AUD/USD saw a sharp rally, breaking above the daily swing area between 0.6268 and 0.6282 and reaching a high of 0.63016. However, the pair has since retraced and is trading below those key levels. On the 4-hour chart, the price briefly moved above the 100-bar moving average (0.62725) and the December 20 swing high, but it fell back below these levels, dampening bullish momentum. A move back above the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart would be necessary to revive bullish sentiment.
On the downside, the 200-hour moving average at 0.6223, closely aligned with the 100-hour MA, serves as strong support. A break below these levels would shift control to sellers and signal a bearish reversal. For now, resistance is seen at the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart (0.6272), while support remains at the 200-hour MA (0.6223).
NZD/USD Analysis:
Similar to the AUD/USD, the NZD/USD hit its lowest level of 2024 on the year’s final trading day, briefly breaking below the 2022 swing level at 0.5596. In early 2025, dip buyers stepped in, driving the pair higher. On the 4-hour chart, today’s rally broke above the 100-bar MA at 0.56775 but failed to hold, pulling back below the swing area between 0.56587 and 0.56715. This area, along with the falling 100-bar MA, now acts as resistance.
On the downside, the 200-hour moving average at 0.56275 and the 100-hour MA at 0.5616 are key support levels. Notably, last week’s high stalled near the 200-hour MA, emphasizing its importance. A move below these levels would indicate sellers have regained control, diminishing the buyers’ strength. For now, the focus remains on whether the pair can hold above support or retest resistance.