Preview: March non-farm payrolls by the numbers — the highest consensus since 2022

What’s expected:

• Consensus estimate +243K (range +150 to +280K)
• Private +190K estimate vs +232K prior
• February +303K
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.8% vs 3.8% prior
• Participation rate: 62.7% prior
• Prior underemployment U6 7.3%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% y/y vs +4.1% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.4 vs 34.4 prior

March jobs so far:

• ADP report +192K vs +175K expected and +208K prior
• ISM services employment released Friday at 10 am ET
• ISM manufacturing employment 48.6 vs 47.4 prior
• Challenger job cuts 64.7K vs 90.3K prior (four month low)
• Philly employment -10.7 vs -9.6 prior
• Empire employment -5.7 vs -7.1 prior
• Initial jobless claims survey week 212K

According to BMO, the headline payrolls
print is seasonally positive in April – coming in above estimates 57% of the
time (by an average of 62k), missing 39% of the time (by an average of 50k),
and matching consensus 4% of the time (excl. 2020/21). In terms of the unemployment rate, 44% of previous
reads in April have been lower-than-expected, 36% have been
higher-than-estimates, and 20% have matched forecasts.

Generally these numbers point to a beat but the consensus is the highest since September 2022, which suggests economists have priced in much of the upside already.