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The EURUSD wandered lower this week and in the process dipped below the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2021 high on the daily chart at 1.0942. What the price in the EURUSD could not do is stay below the rising 100-day moving average currently at 1.09193. That moving average was tested on Wednesday and Thursday, and each test found support buyers. On Friday the price moved higher and away from both the 50% retracement and 100-day moving average. That tilts the technical bias more to the upside going into the new trading week.
Drilling down to the hourly chart, the rally higher today was able to break above the 100-hour moving average currently at 1.09677 and the 200-hour moving average currently at 1.1003. Moreover, a corrective move in the US session held support against that 200-hour moving average before moving to new session highs over the last few hours.
What the rally has not been able to do, is get above the 38.2% retracement of the trend down from the July 18 high to the low price reached yesterday. That level comes in at 1.10502. The high price today has so far reached 1.10412.
Next week (going forward) if the buyers are to take more control they need to get and stay above the 38.2% retracement. If they can do that the shorter-term bias would tilt the bias more to the upside with the 50% midpoint of the move down from the July high at 1.1093, and a swing area near 1.11483 as a next key target areas.
In this video, I outline the levels and lay out the trading strategy for next week’s trading given the technicals in play on both the daily and hourly charts.