USDCAD broke lower this week. This time to the downside.

The USDCAD broke lower this week after two failed upside breakouts in the previous weeks, which briefly pushed the pair beyond the “Red Box” range between 1.4260 and 1.4466 on tariff-related news. Unlike those sharp but unsustained rallies, this week’s move lower has been more measured, with a steady decline following the break below the Red Box’s lower boundary.

Today, the pair fell below a key swing area between 1.4194 and 1.4208, which now serves as a close-risk level for sellers aiming for further downside. If bearish momentum continues, the next major target is a technical cluster between 1.40889 and 1.41063, which includes:

• A swing area between 1.40889 and 1.4104
• The 50% retracement of the September 2024 rally at 1.4106
• The 100-day moving average at 1.4091

This zone is likely to act as a magnet for traders following this week’s bearish break, making it a critical level to watch in the coming sessions.