Oil bounces on stronger signs from the US consumer

Consumers still have money to fill their tanks or fly away.

That’s the message from today’s US retail sales report and commentary from executives at Walmart. Both emphasized a strong US consumer and WMT said the global consumer was also fine.

If so, spending at gasoline stations is likely to remain solid, underpinning gasoline demand.

Technically, oil is consolidating after testing $72 for the second time int he past three months. That test looks successful but it will take a rally above $84 to generate some real momentum to the upside.

The most-bullish indication is positioning, with net longs at-or-near record lows. Positive indications on inventories, demand or even Middle Eastern conflict could lead to a squeeze.