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New Zealand budget – Treasury forecasts inflation below 3% in Q3 2024

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New Zealand forecast a budget
deficit of NZ$11.07($7.04 billion) for the fiscal year ending
June 30 2024,

  • wider than a deficit of NZ$9.32 billion forecast in
    its half-year fiscal update in December.

Treasury inflation forecasts:

  • falling below 3% in Q3 this year
  • to 2% around 2026
  • sees a contraction in GDP in H1 of 2024, return to growth in H2 of this year

NZD/USD is little changed:

Tax relief for Kiwis has contributed to the wider deficit and is a fiscal stimulus for the year ahead. This is not a desired outcome for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand trying to drive inflation down.

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