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The Israel retaliation really marked the top for Gold as the geopolitical risk faded and the market caught up with the rise in US real yields. The trend might be reversing and some key technical breaks are adding up to the chances of seeing a big correction to the downside. Looking ahead, the bears will need to see the strength in the US data continue as a quick deterioration will likely invalidate the bearish case.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Gold fell below a key trendline recently, and after some consolidation, continued lower led by the market’s positioning into a hawkish Fed and the hot US Q1 ECI report yesterday. All else being equal, the natural target should stand around the next trendline near the previous all-time high at 2145 which can be reached if the US data continues to run hot.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke the bearish flag to the downside increasing the bearish momentum as the sellers piled in more aggressively. Technically, the measured target stands around the 2220 level. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 2320 level as we will find the downward trendline acting as resistance, although we will liekly need some weak US data releases or a dovish Fed to get there. A break above the trendline should see the buyers stepping in with more conviction while a break above the 2352 high will invalidate the bearish setup.