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China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global.
- The official PMI survey covers large and state-owned companies, while the Caixin PMI survey covers small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered to be a more reliable indicator of the performance of China’s private sector.
- Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a broader sample of companies than the official survey.
- Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings on China’s manufacturing sector.
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI will follow on Monday, services on Wednesday
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Today we have had data for the official PMIs. March manufacturing PMI comes in at a solid beat, 50.8
- expected 50.1, prior 49.1
Services beats also at 53.0
- expected 51.5, prior 51.4
Composite 52.7
- prior 50.9
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China’s Economy kicked off 2024 on a reasonably strong note. Stimulus measures were recently announced during the Two Sessions, and analysts have begun to upgrade GDP forecasts. For example
January – February data has surprised to the upside. Industrial Production, Retail sales, Fixed asset investment all beat in this recent data:
An additional 1 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds this year should help infrastructure and manufacturing investment accelerate further. China’s economy is still, of course, hamstrung by the deep debt troubles of the property sector. Real estate investment is expected to drag on growth in 2024.