US dollar falls further after the Beige Book and Mester, then rebounds

The US dollar touched the lows of the day following a dovish shift from Mester and a Beige Book that highlighted a slowdown and disinflation in the US.

The fall in the dollar fits with the shift in rate differentials as Fed funds futures price in 116 bps in cuts next year, up from 100 bps yesterday and 87 bps at the start of the week. However it hasn’t stayed down as some dollar buyers have emerged, possibly on month-end flows.

Others may be taking the view that the market has gone too far, too fast on pricing in Fed rate cuts. The Fed blackout starts on the weekend and the intrigue around the upcoming FOMC will be on whether they move to an explicit neutral bias. It may be too soon for that and that could lead to some US dollar buyers to wade in.

There’s also a steady stream of economic data to come. The Beige Book highlighted a slowing economy but slowing isn’t necessarily stalling and there are plenty of ways to generation +2% inflation with growth at just 2%. Tomorrow’s slate includes the initial jobless claims report and PCE. On Friday we get the ISM manufacturing report.