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Analysts at TD Securities noted the key events coming up for the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
“AUD Similar to business confidence (easing from +7 to +4 in August) consumer confidence may pause or dip (prior 103.6) as the unexpected political rout removing PM Turnbull unfolded in August.
INR CPI will benefit from a high base in August 17 and as such we expect a small decline to have been registered in the pace of inflation in August 18. Our forecast of 4.13% y/y in August from 4.17% y/y in July would mark the lowest y/y CPI rate since October 17. Limiting the decline in inflation will be a renewed increase in oil and energy prices and renewed pressure on the INR. The softening in inflation will likely restrain the RBI from hiking rates again this year.
ZAR July retail sales growth is expected at 1.6% Y/Y up from the prior 0.7%. Growth has been weakening since the start of the year as a result of the VAT increase and other tax changes, weak employment growth, and subdued growth in credit extension to households.
SEK The Prospera inflation expectations report is released. 5-year inflation expectations are key here, and they’ve been unchanged for 2.5 years. 2-year expectations did rise to 2.1% last month, and any further increases could cause concern for the Riksbank.
USD The Fed’s Brainard will deliver a speech on the economy and monetary policy at 12:45 ET which will be followed by an audience Q&A and press conference. The Fed will also release its Beige Book later in the afternoon at 14:00 ET to give a look at regional economic conditions ahead of the September FOMC. On the data front, August PPI will give an update on producer prices ahead of Thursday’s CPI report. The market expects a 0.2% m/m increase in the headline index, which would see producer price inflation edge lower to 3.2% from 3.3% y/y.
CAD The market expects capacity utilization to increase to 86.9% in Q2 from 86.1%, which if realized would surpass pre-crisis levels and register as the highest rate since the late 1980s.”