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How to make the best of a situation where markets are ranging
What if the market lacks a trader’s main friend, a
trend? When the price is moving sideways, trend trading strategies won’t do you any good. At the same time, that doesn’t
mean that you should twiddle your thumbs. The solution is to use special
strategies that give you an edge in range trading.
First of all, it’s important to understand the logic
of a range bound market. It’s actually quite simple: neither bulls nor bears
are able to move the market in their favor by much, so the price consolidates.
The period of consolidation may occur after a trend
move. In this case, it will be related to profit taking. At the same time, the
price may start fluctuating in a wider range due to fundamental, i.e. economic
reasons. This can happen when the future is particularly uncertain and market
players see contrasting scenarios, both of which are quite probable, so traders
are reluctant to make longer-term bets.
As a result, the price settles down within a
horizontal range. A range trader bets that it will remain there for some time. The
process of range trading may be broken into several steps.
Step 1. Locate the borders of the range,
i.e. the levels of support and resistance that prevent the price from going
lower or higher. The previous highs of the price chart should be located in the
same area. You should also be able to say the same thing about the preceding
lows. Notice that as the market is not perfect, we are talking about areas
here.
In other words, don’t expect all highs to be right at
the same horizontal level. The most important thing is that the market
shouldn’t make higher highs and lows or lower highs and lows because these are
the distinguishing features of an uptrend or a downtrend respectively. You can
also use the help of Bollinger bands: this indicator provides dynamic support
and resistance corridor for the price.
Step 2. The obvious logic of trend trading is
that you sell when the price is at the top of the range and buy when it’s near
the bottom. That’s necessary, but not enough for making good entries. To
increase the probability of success, use oscillators. Technical indicators of
this type show whether the asset in question is overbought or oversold.
If the price is near resistance and the indicator
sends an “overbought” signal, it’s time to think about a sell trade. When the
price is at support and the indicator says that the market is “oversold”, consider
a buy trade. Among the indicators of this sort, we like the Stochastic
Oscillator the most as it’s visually clearer and easier to interpret.
If you spot a reversal candlestick pattern near the
borders of the range, consider yourself lucky: the odds of successful range
trade will become higher. A failed attempt to break out of the range is also a
sign that the price will likely move to the middle/opposite border of the
range.
Step 3. At this point, you can make your
trade. Don’t forget about proper risk management. The natural place for a Take
Profit is the opposite border of the range. We also recommend putting a TP not
exactly at it but several pips closer to your entry point. This way the
probability that the price reaches your target will be greater. The Stop Loss
may equal to about half of the range size or less.
Finally, we should mention that it’s better to avoid
range trading when volatility is high. Think carefully if you see important
releases in the economic calendar as they can lead to a break out of a range.
In addition, remember that the knowledge of fundamentals will increase your
chances of getting profit, so check economic articles to see what’s happening
at the market and why the price isn’t trending.
This
article was submitted by FBS.